Everyday across the U.
S.
and anywhere else horses are raced, long shots win races.
It is a fact of life and knowing when a long shot is a sleeper is one of the best ways to make some fast money.
That is why so many losers are bet everyday.
Because the few long shots who do win convince bettors that the next one is just around the corner.
A horse at long odds wins a race and for the rest of the day people are scouring their programs looking for another big score.
But the fact of the matter is that they are still few and far between in most cases and therefore deserve to be long shots.
But there are some times when it pays to back a long shot and here are a few of the best reasons.
First of all, it all starts with eliminating the favorite.
Favorites win about a third of the time so if the favorite is legitimate and going off at short odds, pass the race.
Over the years I've found that I just can't make a profit betting on favorites that go off at less than 2 to 1.
If you can really bet the favorite at shorter odds and show a profit over time, then my hat is off to you.
My idea of a legitimate favorite is one that has already done what it is being asked to do in the current race.
If it hasn't then there is room for serious doubt.
If the favorite hasn't won at the distance or surface or against males or older horses, then you might want to start looking for another contender.
The best way to do that is to compare the basic merits of each runner and use a good system to really understand and rate each runner's capabilities based on past performance.
Some people use computer systems while others use simple graphs or charts that show how important each factor is and how much of a difference each horse shows in each category.
A good example of this is Ladder HandicappingIt is amazing how a simple graphic like a ladder can point out a legitimate long shot.
What it all comes down to is that if you don't know how important each factor is and how each horse rates in that category, you are pretty much handicapping blindly.
At that point, the biggest long shot at the track is you.
S.
and anywhere else horses are raced, long shots win races.
It is a fact of life and knowing when a long shot is a sleeper is one of the best ways to make some fast money.
That is why so many losers are bet everyday.
Because the few long shots who do win convince bettors that the next one is just around the corner.
A horse at long odds wins a race and for the rest of the day people are scouring their programs looking for another big score.
But the fact of the matter is that they are still few and far between in most cases and therefore deserve to be long shots.
But there are some times when it pays to back a long shot and here are a few of the best reasons.
First of all, it all starts with eliminating the favorite.
Favorites win about a third of the time so if the favorite is legitimate and going off at short odds, pass the race.
Over the years I've found that I just can't make a profit betting on favorites that go off at less than 2 to 1.
If you can really bet the favorite at shorter odds and show a profit over time, then my hat is off to you.
My idea of a legitimate favorite is one that has already done what it is being asked to do in the current race.
If it hasn't then there is room for serious doubt.
If the favorite hasn't won at the distance or surface or against males or older horses, then you might want to start looking for another contender.
The best way to do that is to compare the basic merits of each runner and use a good system to really understand and rate each runner's capabilities based on past performance.
Some people use computer systems while others use simple graphs or charts that show how important each factor is and how much of a difference each horse shows in each category.
A good example of this is Ladder HandicappingIt is amazing how a simple graphic like a ladder can point out a legitimate long shot.
What it all comes down to is that if you don't know how important each factor is and how each horse rates in that category, you are pretty much handicapping blindly.
At that point, the biggest long shot at the track is you.
Source...